If you think ‘Empire’ is going anywhere, you’re nuts
Cancel Bear vs. FOX, week 11:
Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.
So, yes, “Empire” has fallen considerably in the
ratings this season, and it’s gone below a 3.0 in adults 18-49 a
couple times in recent weeks — the first and second time that’s
ever happened to the show.
So what? FOX is not going to dump the top-rated drama
on broadcast TV. “Empire” is a lock to return next season.
| Show | Status | 18-49 rating | Renew/Cancel Index |
| Scream Queens (O) |  | 0.66 | -0.04 |
| Rosewood (O) | | 0.77 | 0.07 |
| The Exorcist (F) (O) | | 0.69 | 0.29 |
| The Last Man on Earth (O) | | 0.99 | 0.29 |
| Pitch (O) | | 0.86 | 0.16 |
| Brooklyn Nine-Nine | | 0.96 | 0.26 |
| Son of Zorn (O) | | 1.29 | 0.59 |
| Lucifer | | 1.06 | 0.36 |
| New Girl (O) | | 0.95 | 0.25 |
| Gotham | | 1.13 | 0.43 |
| Lethal Weapon | | 1.83 | 1.13 |
| Family Guy (O) | | 1.45 | 0.75 |
| Empire (O) | | 3.39 | 2.69 |
| Bob’s Burgers (O) | Renewed | 1.18 | 0.48 |
| The Simpsons (O) | Renewed | 2.02 | 1.32 |
The show’s gravity-defying first season had the effect
of setting the bar so high that it would likely never reach it again.
What “Empire” has done since then is just act like a normal
network drama, falling year to year but staying within a fairly narrow
range week to week. That’s what shows do.
Is “Empire” the world-beating network savior it was two years ago?
No. But it’s still arguably the most important piece of FOX’s lineup
at the moment, and no way the network lets that go.
Key:
the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower
than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied
by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 7 70 percent) before subtracting the
replacement-level number.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index
number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios
affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than
those from outside producers.
of setting the bar so high that it would likely never reach it again.
What “Empire” has done since then is just act like a normal
network drama, falling year to year but staying within a fairly narrow
range week to week. That’s what shows do.
Is “Empire” the world-beating network savior it was two years ago?
No. But it’s still arguably the most important piece of FOX’s lineup
at the moment, and no way the network lets that go.
Key:
| DSW | Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing | ||||
| sure bet to be canceled by May 2017 | ||||
| likely to be canceled by May 2017 | ||||
| tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017 | ||||
| likely to be renewed by May 2017 | ||||
| sure bet to be renewed by May 2017 | ||||
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below)
a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults
18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled.
For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating
in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW.
The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2)
from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults
18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled.
For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating
in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW.
The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2)
from a show’s average same-day rating.
the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower
than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied
by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 7 70 percent) before subtracting the
replacement-level number.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index
number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios
affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than
those from outside producers.
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