91st Academy Award Predictions- Hollywood's biggest night has turned into Hollywood's biggest pain in the ass
Let's be honest: It has not been a great couple of months for the Oscars. From a disastrous attempt to find a host to gig, that used to be a coveted one, but is now a job no one in Hollywood wants to do and the controversial decision to cut four categories from the live broadcast, Hollywood's biggest night has turned into Hollywood's biggest pain in the ass.
Awards season usually makes monsters of all of us, from the brutal campaigning to the fighting about nominations and snubs and category fraud. Doesn't it feel like it's been Oscars Season for years?
Feeling a little exhausted?
And yet, there's still a show to do, and the Oscars are steering forward without a host at the helm and with a weird lineup of nominees. And so we must do our job and offer my predictions for who will take away trophies for the top awards. The categories are star-studded and full of incredible artists who might very well earn the awards they deserve. And sure, there will be some that are kind of lame—it's a popularity contest, after all, to quote Drake's shortened Grammys acceptance speech. Despite a controversial year for movies and the Oscars, the Academy still has to hand out some awards.
Click here is the complete list of Oscar Nominations
Here's who are most likely to go home with little gold men on Oscars night:
Best Picture: Roma
This is, unquestionably, the most fraught category. Does Rami Malek do his best under all of those wigs and plastic teeth to portray Freddie Mercury's inherent charisma and talent? Yeah, sure, a lot of this performance—especially the musical sequences—has an uncanny valley aspect to it; half of the time, it looks like Malek's Mercury is the product of a computer (which is how you could also describe this movie's clunky and history-fudging script). But Malek's performance is a crowd-pleasing one, even if it's not particularly artful. It's likely he'll take home the Oscar, in spite of—or maybe even because of—director Bryan Singer's firing and the allegations of sexual misconduct against him.
While it earned three Oscar nominations (along with King's, it earned Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Original Score) If Beale Street Could Talk seems like the most-snubbed movie of the year. (Everybody seems so pressed that Bradley Cooper didn't get a Best Director nomination to go along with his other three nods. Bradley Cooper and Beale Street got the same number of nominations! Isn't that wild?) But I won't use any more space to focus on this injustice, and instead will say how rapturous and commanding Regina King's performance actually is—one that feels like we're watching a seasoned artist finally get the meaty film role she's long deserved. To see King get this award, particularly in a category stacked with incredible performances, would be a blessing that parallels those that King has gifted her fans for decades.
The Best Picture race is packed with stellar films (and, let's be honest, some actual clunkers). But is there even a true frontrunner this year?
One could make a case for each film's relevance and chances. Black Panther was a cinematic moment. BlacKkKlansman is a return to form for the legendary Spike Lee. A Star Is Born revived an oft-told story with a first-time director and leading actress. The Favourite is a screwball historical tale with three leading female characters. Even the worst of the bunch have something going for them: the feel-good charm of Green Book, the caustic political comedy of Vice, the box-office-smashing Bohemian Rhapsody.
One could make a case for each film's relevance and chances. Black Panther was a cinematic moment. BlacKkKlansman is a return to form for the legendary Spike Lee. A Star Is Born revived an oft-told story with a first-time director and leading actress. The Favourite is a screwball historical tale with three leading female characters. Even the worst of the bunch have something going for them: the feel-good charm of Green Book, the caustic political comedy of Vice, the box-office-smashing Bohemian Rhapsody.
But we are placing our bets on Roma, Alfonso Cuarón's touching and heartfelt drama that, at its core, is Best Picture material. It takes a literary approach to its subject—following the downtrodden maid Cleo who has an emotion-packed year of love and loss, ecstasy and grief—and tells its story through Cuarón's deeply personal lens. And the campaign narrative beyond the film's actual plot is a compelling out: It is Netflix's first shot at a Best Picture win, and the company has put all of its muscle behind it to grab it and establish itself as more than a streaming TV service. Our cynical side is excited to see how this whole thing plays out.
Best Actor: Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Best Actress: Glenn Close, The Wife
If you asked anyone last fall who would win this Oscar, the answer would be: Lady Gaga. And then The Favourite came out, and Olivia Colman gained steam for her fierce and funny performance as Queen Anne, which certainly made Gaga nervous. But Glenn Close's Golden Globe win changed all of that last month. It was a surprise to most of us, as The Wife was a tiny movie without much of an awards push behind it. And Close's stirring acceptance speech, taking place just days before Oscar nomination voting began, may have swayed some Academy voters. This is the actress's seventh nomination and could be her first win; the Academy loves to award a career, and it appears that this will be Close's shot at that coveted trophy.
Best Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Green Book is steeped in controversy, from director Peter Farrelly's history of flashing his penis around to screenwriter Nick Vallelonga's unearthed racist tweet to the film's white savior narrative that reduces the character of the real-life piano virtuoso Don Shirley in favor of a white protagonist. But there's one objectively good thing about it: Mahershala Ali, who has had the unfortunate task of being in the spotlight while his white colleagues make a mess of their Oscar campaigns. A second Oscar in this category might feel like a weird consolation prize for getting embroiled in Hollywood drama, but this much is true: Ali elevates everything he touches because he's that good of an actor. He brings dignity to his performance of Don Shirley that's gravely missing from the rest of the film, and if history remembers Green Book as a Mahershala Ali movie, I'm all for it.
Best Supporting Actress: Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
While it earned three Oscar nominations (along with King's, it earned Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Original Score) If Beale Street Could Talk seems like the most-snubbed movie of the year. (Everybody seems so pressed that Bradley Cooper didn't get a Best Director nomination to go along with his other three nods. Bradley Cooper and Beale Street got the same number of nominations! Isn't that wild?) But I won't use any more space to focus on this injustice, and instead will say how rapturous and commanding Regina King's performance actually is—one that feels like we're watching a seasoned artist finally get the meaty film role she's long deserved. To see King get this award, particularly in a category stacked with incredible performances, would be a blessing that parallels those that King has gifted her fans for decades.WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
This is the place voters can easily honor Lee (along with his three co-writers). But while “BlacKkKlansman” was cruising through the season with the most critics’ wins in the frame and a BAFTA award to boot, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?” stunned with a victory at the WGA Awards. So Lee’s Oscar might not be as locked-in as some assume. Fun fact: If “BlacKkKlansman” does win, it will become just the fifth film ever to win a screenplay Oscar with four credited writers, following in the footsteps of “Pygmalion,” “Mrs. Miniver,” “Pillow Talk” and “Birdman.”
Will win: “BlacKkKlansman”
Could win: “A Star Is Born”
Should win: “The Ballad of Buster Scruggs”
Should have been here: “Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse”
Could win: “A Star Is Born”
Should win: “The Ballad of Buster Scruggs”
Should have been here: “Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse”
WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
This is a bit of a toss-up. If “Green Book” is poised to win best picture, then screenplay ought to follow. It wouldn’t be odd, necessarily, for a film to win the top prize and just one other award, but you have to go back nearly 80 years before you find such winners that didn’t match best picture with a screenplay trophy. “The Favourite” won the hometown BAFTA prize and wasn’t eligible for a writers guild award, while “Green Book” won the Golden Globe. Not to be forgotten, Paul Schrader — perhaps a sentimental pick — won the Critics’ Choice award, and in a true shocker, the WGA opted for “Eighth Grade,” which wasn’t Oscar-nominated.
Will win: “Green Book”
Could win: “The Favourite”
Should win: “First Reformed”
Should have been here: “Blindspotting”
Could win: “The Favourite”
Should win: “First Reformed”
Should have been here: “Blindspotting”
CINEMATOGRAPHY
Alfonso Cuarón dropped this prize to “Cold War” at the American Society of Cinematographers’ awards, but he won the BAFTA honor and countless others. He was the first director ever ASC-nominated (or, for that matter, Oscar-nominated) for shooting his own film, so maybe a win was simply a bridge too far for the lensers. It seems like an easy get when opening it up to the full membership of the Academy, though.
Will win: “Roma”
Could win: “Cold War”
Should win: “Roma”
Should have been here: “If Beale Street Could Talk”
Could win: “Cold War”
Should win: “Roma”
Should have been here: “If Beale Street Could Talk”
COSTUME DESIGN
There’s not much to say in the design categories. There’s a period piece up for best picture and nine other Oscars this year, so it’s probably got the inside track. “Black Panther” has been a popular pick among pundits, and that would be exciting, but more often than not, period porn wins out.
Will win: “The Favourite”
Could win: “Mary Poppins Returns”
Should win: “Black Panther”
Should have been here: “If Beale Street Could Talk”
Could win: “Mary Poppins Returns”
Should win: “Black Panther”
Should have been here: “If Beale Street Could Talk”
FILM EDITING
This is a very tricky category this year but it seems worth it to let BAFTA voters point the way, as they have in a few other similarly tricky races in recent memory (“Whiplash,” “Hacksaw Ridge”). The most conspicuous cutting tends to take it, so it’s either the kinetic Dick Cheney biopic or the kinetic Freddie Mercury biopic.
Will win: “Vice”
Could win: “Bohemian Rhapsody”
Should win: “Vice”
Should have been here: “Minding the Gap”
Could win: “Bohemian Rhapsody”
Should win: “Vice”
Should have been here: “Minding the Gap”
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
You have a best picture nominee with eight total nominations, including three acting notices that showcase the makeup work, versus a film with just two nominations and another that was only recognized here. You can probably put your chips on “Vice” with confidence. (BAFTA opted for “The Favourite,” which was not nominated here.)
Will win: “Vice”
Could win: “Mary Queen of Scots”
Should win: “Border”
Should have been here: “Black Panther”
Could win: “Mary Queen of Scots”
Should win: “Border”
Should have been here: “Black Panther”
MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)
“Black Panther” won the Grammy over last year’s Oscar winner, “The Shape of Water.” (Overlapping calendar years tend to force weird match-ups like that.) But “If Beale Street Could Talk” was probably the most laureled work on the regional critics circuit short of the bizarrely Oscar-snubbed “First Man.” Musical “Mary Poppins Returns” is probably the real spoiler of the bunch, though. Tough call, but here’s a note: Best picture nominees almost always tend to have the leg up in this category, so that would make it “Black Panther” or “BlacKkKlansman.”
Will win: “Black Panther”
Could win: “Mary Poppins Returns”
Should win: “If Beale Street Could Talk”
Should have been here: “First Man”
Could win: “Mary Poppins Returns”
Should win: “If Beale Street Could Talk”
Should have been here: “First Man”
MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)
This has possibly been the most locked-in win of the season. Lady Gaga, Oscar winner.
Will win: “Shallow” from “A Star Is Born”
Could win: “The Place Where Lost Things Go” from “Mary Poppins Returns”
Should win: “All the Stars” from “Black Panther”
Should have been here: “Maybe It’s Time” from “A Star Is Born”
Could win: “The Place Where Lost Things Go” from “Mary Poppins Returns”
Should win: “All the Stars” from “Black Panther”
Should have been here: “Maybe It’s Time” from “A Star Is Born”
PRODUCTION DESIGN
See “Best Costume Design.” Granted, the design categories have split more often than not lately, and “Black Panther” is formidable. But again, a dominant, period-set best picture player is hard to bet against.
Will win: “The Favourite”
Could win: “Black Panther”
Should win: “Roma”
Should have been here: “Isle of Dogs”
Could win: “Black Panther”
Should win: “Roma”
Should have been here: “Isle of Dogs”
SOUND EDITING
The sound categories boil down to a moonshot biopic relegated to the Academy’s crafts fields and a pair of best-picture-contending musical dramas. The smart play is to pick one for both, but the sound editing category is where things can sometimes get interesting, particularly when musicals are in play. In general, though, focus on the best picture nominees. “Bohemian Rhapsody” won the BAFTA sound prize (the Brits combine these into one category) as well as a pair of MPSE awards, so it’s probably in the lead here.
Will win: “Bohemian Rhapsody”
Could win: “First Man”
Should win: “First Man”
Should have been here: “Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse”
Could win: “First Man”
Should win: “First Man”
Should have been here: “Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse”
SOUND MIXING
See “Best Sound Editing.” There’s a slight chance the Academy goes for “First Man” in a big way in these last few categories, though.
Will win: “Bohemian Rhapsody”
Could win: “First Man”
Should win: “First Man”
Should have been here: “Mission: Impossible – Fallout”
Could win: “First Man”
Should win: “First Man”
Should have been here: “Mission: Impossible – Fallout”
VISUAL EFFECTS
“Avengers: Infinity War” dominated the Visual Effects Society’s awards, making it the clear favorite among the actual artisans in the VFX trenches. But “First Man” picked up a VES prize as well, and again, we’re opening it up to the Academy at large here. So Damien Chazelle’s space drama could spoil the big effects-heavy blockbuster, just as films like “Ex Machina” and “Hugo” have in recent years. Not to mention, it’s the only film in the lineup with multiple nominations this year. (BAFTA, by the way, is no help after awarding “Black Panther,” which wasn’t nominated by the Academy.)
Will win: “First Man”
Could win: “Avengers: Infinity War”
Should win: “Ready Player One”
Should have been here: “Annihilation”
Could win: “Avengers: Infinity War”
Should win: “Ready Player One”
Should have been here: “Annihilation”
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
“Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse” has completely dominated this race every step of the way, but “Incredibles 2” skyrocketed into the list of top 10 domestic box office grossers of all time with a tally north of $600 million. It’s also prestige Pixar and critically acclaimed to boot. This feels like a major upset waiting to happen, but I’ll try to keep the faith.
Will win: “Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse”
Could win: “Incredibles 2”
Should win: “Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse”
Should have been here: “Ruben Brandt, Collector”
Could win: “Incredibles 2”
Should win: “Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse”
Should have been here: “Ruben Brandt, Collector”
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
“Cold War” is a potential spoiler here if only because a number of voters who pick “Roma” in the top field could spread the love in the foreign-language category. Otherwise, this feels like an easy get for Mexico and Cuarón.
Will win: “Roma” (Mexico)
Could win: “Cold War” (Poland)
Should win: “Roma” (Mexico)
Should have been here: “The Guilty” (Denmark)
Could win: “Cold War” (Poland)
Should win: “Roma” (Mexico)
Should have been here: “The Guilty” (Denmark)
DOCUMENTARY (FEATURE)
It would make sense for the Academy to go for “RBG,” given the tenor of contemporary American politics. Not to mention, Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg made it back to the bench last week, right in the thick of Oscar voting. (Just saying!) Across the pond, however, BAFTA voters opted for “Free Solo,” and that could be a harbinger. National Geographic’s campaign turned it on in the final stretch as rock climber Alex Honnold became a full-blown rock star (no pun intended). The film also notably got a big pop at the Oscar nominees luncheon earlier this month.
Will win: “Free Solo”
Could win: “RBG”
Should win: “Minding the Gap”
Should have been here: “Shirkers”
Could win: “RBG”
Should win: “Minding the Gap”
Should have been here: “Shirkers”
DOCUMENTARY (SHORT SUBJECT)
For the most part, you have to just go with your gut in the shorts categories. For docs, personally speaking, nothing left a mark like “Black Sheep,” a subjective study in the psychological toll of racism. Netflix has a pair of contenders in “End Game” and “Period. End of Sentence.” (ultimately the lightest of the bunch), and either could easily take it.
Will win: “Black Sheep”
Could win: “Period. End of Sentence.”
Should win: “Black Sheep”
Could win: “Period. End of Sentence.”
Should win: “Black Sheep”
SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)
All of this year’s animated short nominees aim for the heartstrings, save for the more irreverent “Animal Behaviour.” While Pixar doesn’t necessarily dominate this category (contenders like “La Luna” and “Lou” have missed), “Bao” is likely to stand out amid all those same-y feels.
Will win: “Bao”
Could win: “Weekends”
Should win: “One Small Step”
Could win: “Weekends”
Should win: “One Small Step”
SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)
While the animated shorts are mostly heartfelt offerings, the live-action shorts are overwhelmingly dark and depressing. The one film that allows some space to breathe and feel the least bit good probably has a leg up, then.
Will win: “Marguerite”
Could win: “Skin”
Should win: “Marguerite”
Could win: “Skin”
Should win: “Marguerite”
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